The Averages Are Lying To You
Three forces are reshaping the freight market at once — and the national headline numbers don’t tell you which one is hitting your freight.
Issue No. 04 / 2026
The national averages are lying to you.
National tender rejections sit near 14.9% — more than four times where they were a year ago. But that headline number is the mildest version of the story playing out underneath. The Midwest is north of 18%. Cross-border lanes look loose on paper while compliant capacity quietly disappears. Spot rates have hit cycle highs we haven’t seen since 2022, and the spread to contract is closing fast.
What’s different about this turn is that three forces are converging at once. Three years of carrier attrition meeting an industrial demand wave — manufacturing PMI just hit a three-year high — meeting a geopolitical wildcard that’s pushing Asia-US ocean rates up 22% in a single month. Any one of these would tighten the market. All three at the same time is something we haven’t seen this decade.
Here’s what I’m telling shippers right now: the budget you built six months ago is already obsolete. C.H. Robinson revised their 2026 dry van forecast from +10% to +12% in a single update. Knight-Swift is openly pursuing 10%+ contract increases. The shippers who reset their assumptions in Q2 will own their cost basis for the next 18 months. The ones who wait for Q3 bid season will be writing checks they didn’t budget for.
Read the layers. Don’t trust the average.
Reading the layers
What’s actually moving the market
One number, three different stories.
National rejection rates near 14.9% obscure as much as they reveal. Underneath sit three distinct, simultaneous forces — each strong enough on its own to tighten the market. Together, they’re rewriting routing guides faster than most shippers can model it.
The Cross-Border Squeeze
For shippers moving freight into or out of Mexico, the loose-market read on national tender rejections is misleading. According to Uber Freight’s Zeid Houssami, U.S.-Mexico entered Q1 2026 in a “supply-driven” phase — and the constraint isn’t a demand surge, it’s a compliant-capacity shortage. Security protocols, vetting requirements, and carrier qualification standards are shrinking the pool of trucks that can legally and safely move cross-border freight on the lanes shippers actually need.
Northbound demand runs 2-3x southbound, forcing carriers to deadhead equipment back into Mexico and tightening U.S.-bound coverage further. Tender volumes look firm to slightly elevated through April, but tender acceptance is moving the other way. The gap is “phantom capacity” — freight on the board, but the right truck (vetted, compliant, security-cleared) isn’t available.
The wildcard sits in July: the USMCA review. Nearshoring investment has slowed as shippers wait to see whether the trade pact is extended or renegotiated. Any prolonged uncertainty injects more volatility into already-thin cross-border capacity.
The takeaway: Lock in vetted carrier relationships now, plan for capacity friction through the USMCA review window, and price contracts for the corridor reality — not the national average. The cheap truck on the load board may not exist when you need it.
The Manufacturing Renaissance
The industrial economy is back, and the freight data is louder than the headlines. Multiple datasets are converging on the same story: this is the strongest setup for U.S. manufacturing in years.
Rail: Carloads excluding coal averaged 171,338 per week in March — the strongest March since 2008 and the highest monthly level since August 2019. Chemical shipments hit a record weekly average of 35,580 carloads, up 5.5% YoY. Q1 carloads up 4.2% YoY, the best Q1 since 2019.
Trucking: Flatbed (FTI.USA) hit an all-time record at $3.95/mi. ATA For-Hire Tonnage Index up 2.6% MoM in February to its highest level in three years. BoA Shipper Survey at +18% YoY, highest since 2022.
Macro: Capital goods now make up a record 41% of all U.S. goods imports — equipment for future production. The trade deficit in the first two months of 2026 is down 55% versus the same period in 2025. Companies are positioning for expanded domestic output.
The takeaway: Industrial freight is leading this cycle, not consumer freight. If your supply chain touches manufacturing, construction inputs, or capital goods — flatbed, reefer-pharma, or specialized equipment — you’re already feeling this. The capacity buffer that absorbed demand shocks for three years is gone.
The Hormuz Ripple
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed to commercial shipping since late February. For domestic trucking, the relevant story isn’t oil prices — it’s how the rerouting is reshaping inland freight flows.
Asia-US West Coast spot ocean rates climbed to $2,857/FEU as of late April, up 22% in the past month and up 29% since end of February per Xeneta. Asia-US East Coast rates sit at $3,871/FEU. Carriers have built entirely new service networks with little warning — alternative routing via the Cape of Good Hope adds 10-20 days to transit times.
The diesel side is just as significant. Diesel posted its largest weekly increase on record in March, putting immediate pressure on carrier margins and shipper fuel surcharges. Brent crude hit $126/barrel at peak, the highest since 2022.
The takeaway: As ocean transit stretches and ocean costs rise, importers are pre-positioning inventory deeper into the year — adding demand pressure on inland drayage and OTR right at the moment domestic capacity is shrinking. The Hormuz situation isn’t somebody else’s problem; it’s flowing into your fuel surcharge and your routing guide depth.
Signals for May & June
DOT Roadcheck Week
Annual CVSA International Roadcheck overlaps with Memorial Day weekend. Expect a meaningful rejection-rate spike during an already-tight period. Traditionally pulls capacity offline for 72 hours; this year, it hits a thinner carrier base than any spring since 2022.
Produce Season Ramp
California, Florida, and Texas produce volumes are already lifting reefer rates ~25% YoY. Watch for the cascade effect into dry van as displaced reefer capacity competes for general freight. Roadcheck Week falling mid-produce makes this a stress test.
Non-Domiciled CDL Enforcement
The state-by-state revocation cycle is still playing out. California has revoked ~17,000 CDLs. New York hit with $73.5M federal funding withhold. Texas audits in progress. Industry estimates put ~194,000 non-domiciled CDLs nationally at risk — concentrated in specific corridors.
USMCA Review
The trade pact review begins in July. Cross-border lanes are already showing strain; uncertainty around the review is a coiled spring. Nearshoring investment has slowed as shippers wait for clarity. Expect cross-border volatility to persist regardless of outcome.
Ready to read the layers in your own freight?
AZL’s Managed Transportation Services team builds capacity strategies that reflect corridor reality — not the national average. Schedule a market review →