From the desk of Nate Schwandt
The freight cycle is doing something it hasn't done in a while — it's actually shifting. Carriers have been exiting the market quietly for two years, and now that attrition is starting to show up in the data. Truckload volumes are at a four-year high. Spot rates have overtaken contract rates. Tender rejections are spiking in a way we haven't seen since the last freight boom. Flatbed is on another level entirely. If you've gotten comfortable in a shipper's market, the data is telling you to pay attention. The domestic economy is strengthening, not cooling — and the shippers who build carrier relationships now will be in a very different position than those who wait and react.
Chart 1 — Truckload volume index (STVI.USA)
SONAR Truckload Volume Index — United States
Current: 11,887 INDX · Annual avg: 11,011 · Year-over-year comparison
+10%
YoY volume growth
11,887
Current index
4-yr
High — above 2024 & 2023
11,011
Annual average
2025 (current)
2024
2023
Nate's take: Trucking volumes at a four-year high, up 10% year-over-year. Ignore the noise and focus on the signal. The freight market is telling us that the domestic economy is strengthening, not cooling.
Chart 2 — Spot vs. contract rate trends
SONAR National Truckload Index vs. Van Contract Rate
NTI.USA (spot) vs. VCRPM1.USA (contract base rate per mile) · Apr 2025 – Mar 2026
$2.97
Spot rate / mile
$2.45
Contract rate / mile
+$0.52
Spot premium over contract
+25%
Spot above contract YoY
Spot (NTI.USA)
Van contract (VCRPM1.USA)
Key signal: Spot has crossed above contract — a classic cycle inflection point. When shippers' routing guides break down, brokers become essential. Carriers are selectively rejecting contract freight to chase higher spot rates. If your route guide is holding at 100%, that's about to change.
Chart 3 — Truckload tender rejection index (STRI.USA)
SONAR Truckload Rejection Index — United States
Current: 14.9% · 6mo avg: 12.61% · All four years compared: 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026
14.9%
2026 current (Apr)
10.45%
2025 peak (Dec)
7.7%
2024 peak (Dec)
5.69%
2023 peak (Dec)
2026 (current YTD)
2025
2024
2023
What this means: The 2026 rejection rate is already running dramatically above every prior year at the same point in time — nearly 15% in April vs. 3.2% in April 2025 and 2.7% in April 2024. This is not a seasonal pattern. It's a structural shift. When 1 in 7 contracted loads gets rejected, shippers need a broker with a deep carrier network. This is exactly where Alpha Zero adds the most value.
Chart 4 — Mode performance trends (rate per mile)
Flatbed, Reefer & Dry Van — Rate per mile
SONAR FTI, RTI, NTI · Apr 2025 – Mar 2026
$3.64
Flatbed (FTI.USA)
$3.20
Reefer (RTI.USA)
$2.91
Dry van (NTI.USA)
4-yr
Flatbed tightest in 4 years
Flatbed (FTI)
Reefer (RTI)
Dry van (NTI)
Nate's take: Flatbed has achieved lift-off. This is a sign of the industrial economy's resurgence — construction, manufacturing, and the data center boom are all driving demand simultaneously. If you move any flatbed freight, costs are going up. Plan accordingly and talk to us about securing capacity now.
Mode-by-mode breakdown
Truckload (FTL)Tightening fast
- Carriers rejecting contract loads to chase spot rates
- Driver pool shrinking — new CDL rules + immigration enforcement
- Route guides breaking down — shippers need backup options now
- Every disruption hits harder with less capacity slack
LTLRates firm
- Rates at all-time high — up 5.2% YoY despite soft demand
- Carriers raising rates to cover high fixed terminal costs
- GRIs hitting spot shippers hardest — contracts matter
- TL overflow will add LTL volume pressure in H2
FlatbedTightest in 4 years
- Construction + manufacturing + data centers competing for same trucks
- Rates surging — $3.64/mile and climbing into peak season
- Spring peak arriving — secure capacity now or pay more later
- Industrial economy resurgence is the underlying driver
InternationalDisrupted
- Middle East conflict adding weeks to ocean transit times
- Air freight severely strained by airspace restrictions
- Asia service recovering unevenly post-Lunar New Year
- South America ports seeing higher rollover risk
What to watch in April
New CDL rules take effect
Tighter licensing requirements go into effect this month, further constraining the available driver pool. Combined with immigration enforcement impacts on owner-operators, expect capacity to compress heading into spring peak.
Diesel price spike
Diesel rose 96 cents in a single week in early March — the largest 7-day spike on record per EIA. Middle East instability keeps fuel price risk elevated and will flow through to freight costs in Q2.
Flatbed peak season arriving
Construction and manufacturing ramp-up converging with already-tight flatbed supply. Secure capacity on flatbed lanes now — this is not a wait-and-see situation.
Tariff & trade uncertainty
Policy shifts are shortening planning cycles. Cross-border shippers should stress-test landed-cost assumptions and maintain flexible routing options heading into Q2.
Frequently asked questions
What are the current truckload rejection rates?
As of April 2026, the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) is at 14.9% — roughly 4x higher than April 2025 (3.2%) and April 2024 (2.7%). The six-month average sits at 12.61%, meaning more than 1 in 7 contracted loads is being rejected by carriers. This is a structural shift, not a seasonal pattern.
Are flatbed rates rising in 2026?
Yes — flatbed is the tightest trucking mode in four years. The SONAR Flatbed Trucking Index is at $3.64 per mile as of March 2026 and climbing into spring peak season. Demand is being driven simultaneously by construction, manufacturing, and data center buildout, with no new capacity coming online to absorb it.
Why are spot rates higher than contract rates in 2026?
As of March 2026, spot rates are running $2.97 per mile versus $2.45 for van contract rates — a $0.52 premium, or about 25% above contract. Carriers are selectively rejecting contracted freight to chase the higher spot rates, which is why tender rejections have spiked near 15%. Spot crossing above contract is a classic freight cycle inflection point.
What should shippers do when tender rejections spike?
When tender rejections cross 10–15%, your primary carriers are selectively declining contract loads to chase spot. The practical response: build broker relationships before you need them, diversify your carrier base beyond routing-guide primaries, and secure capacity on priority lanes now rather than in-quarter. Shippers who wait until their route guide is already failing pay spot-market premiums on every load that falls out.
Ready for the shift?
Don't wait for your route guide to fail.
When tender rejections cross 15% and spot runs above contract, shippers without carrier depth feel it first. If you're not sure how your lanes are positioned heading into spring peak, let's take a look — no commitment, just a clear read on where you're exposed.
Talk to our team